Best Actor
Right now, the locks are Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Christian Bale (Vice), and Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) with Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) in a less-secure fourth slot. It might seem like Bale is less secure, but the Academy loves Christian Bale and they love Adam McKay. Bale, you might recall, got a supporting actor nomination for The Big Short, and the movie was nominated for all sorts of awards. The fifth slot belongs to either Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) – he's the critics' favorite – or John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) who is, after all, Denzel Washington's son. I don't know which of these it could go to – and it may be that Malek's slot is less secure than I think and Washington and Hawke get in and Malek doesn't (my preference). Rounding out the possibilities in this category are Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), and Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun) – all are unlikely.
Best Actress
The locks are Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), and Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born). I just want to say that Sony Pictures Classics has been doing a great job with this Glenn Close campaign. The Washington DC critics were the only group who mentioned Close, but here we are in mid-December and the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild both nominated her. And The Wife is back in theatres everywhere. Well done. Slot 4 goes (deservedly) to Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), I think. As for slot 5, the options are: Toni Collette (Hereditary), Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Regina Hall (Support the Girls), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Rosamund Pike (A Private War), and Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns). Strangely, I think Blunt will end up in this slot. But maybe someone else will emerge in the next month.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) and Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) all seem like sure things here, although as we move into early January, I expect Chalamet will become less secure. The fifth slot will go to either Steven Yeun (Burning), Sam Rockwell (Vice), Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) or – the likeliest candidate – Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman).
Best Supporting Actress
The Screen Actors Guild for some reason threw a curveball this morning and didn't nominate Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) in this category, even though she seems like a sure bet. Both Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) and Emma Stone (The Favourite) are also locks. Amy Adams (Vice) looks like she'll fill the fourth slot here. That leaves one more nomination, but no one can seem to agree who should get it. The most likely seems to be Elizabeth Debicki (Widows), but also mentioned so far have been Margot Robbie (Mary, Queen of Scots), Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased), Claire Foy (First Man), Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), Zoe Kazan (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs), and Cynthia Erivo (Bad Times at the El Royale).
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