I have to confess to not being very sure about a lot of these this year. Last year I felt quite confident about my predictions, but this year feels a little like 2001 when Gladiator and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon were up against two Steven Soderbergh movies. I think we're going to be looking at a split this year, as well.
Now, to say that is to kind of ignore the current buzz which suggests that The King's Speech is going to sweep everything. If we were speaking of a movie set in an older historical period I think I would agree, but I guess I can't really see TKS winning awards like Cinematography and Art Direction. I obviously could be quite wrong here, and my inability to visualize Tom Hooper's movie actually winning in these categories comes from my own feeling about the film's general mediocrity. So: take these predictions with that grain of salt. I am going to list them in the general order they are going to be handed out in the telecast.
Best Art Direction: Inception (upset of TKS)
Best Cinematography: True Grit (upset of TKS)
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Animated Short Film: Day & Night
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Best Foreign Language Film: Biutiful
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Best Original Score: The King's Speech
Best Sound Mixing: Inception
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Makeup: The Way Back
Best Documentary Short Subject: Strangers No More
Best Live-action Short Film: Wish 143
Best Documentary Feature: Inside Job
Best Costume Design: The King's Speech
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Film Editing: The King's Speech (I'm switching from TSN)
Best Original Song: Toy Story 3
Best Director: David Fincher (upset of TKS)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Best Actor: Colin Firth
Best Picture: The King's Speech (obvs.)
So the big indicator will come early on in the evening. If The King's Speech takes home the first two Oscars, then Fincher is definitely out as director and Tom Hooper is taking home the Oscar. I really, really think that Fincher is going to win this year, but as my caveat above should make clear, I might only think this because TSN is just a better movie than TKS. Predicting based upon how good a movie actually is is almost never a good idea.
Anyway, I think it will be a fun night! I plan to make themed cocktails again, will probably be drunk enough that when The King's Speech wins the Oscar, I won't mind nearly as much.