Love and scandal are the best sweeteners of tea. —Henry Fielding

07 January 2013

Oscar Possibilities

I hate to call these predictions because what with the newly bumped-up schedule, the Oscar nominations are harder than ever to predict. Added to the perennial question "Who on earth is the Music Branch going to nominate for Best Song this year?" there is even more confusion, since the Director's Guild, the Writer's Guild, and the Producer's Guild all put out their nominations after the Academy's nominations were already in.

To be honest, I like the bumped-up schedule. It meant that we didn't get all the awards contenders in December this year. They were, instead, spread throughout the year a bit more evenly. I appreciate that. My December is busy enough as it is, thank you very much. But who knows: what we see may be to totally nuts on Thursday morning.

Here, in any case, is how I think it will probably go down. You should know that these would not be my choices if I were in charge. You can see my favorites here. I also assume that who I want to be nominated generally influences my predictions adversely, so I attempt to correct for that – this is why you won't see Quvenzhané Wallis or Joaquin Phoenix anywhere below.

BEST ACTOR
Denzel Washington, Flight
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST ACTRESS
Emannuelle Riva, Amour
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, Argo
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Eddie Redmayne, Les Misérables
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Javier Bardem, Skyfall

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Helen Hunt, The Sessions

BEST ART DIRECTION
Anna Karenina
Argo
Django Unchained
Lincoln
The Master

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: an Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Lincoln

BEST DIRECTOR
Amour
Argo
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST FILM EDITING
Argo
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: an Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Skyfall

BEST MAKEUP
The Hobbit: an Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
Looper

BEST PICTURE
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE PICTURE
Amour
Beyond the Hills
The Intouchables
No
A Royal Affair

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
The Rabbi’s Cat
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-it Ralph

BEST SCORE
Argo
Anna Karenina
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln

BEST SONG
Django Unchained – “Who Did That to You?”
Life of Pi – "Pi's Lullaby"
Les Misérables – "Suddenly"
Rise of the Guardians – "Still Dream"
Skyfall – "Skyfall"

BEST SOUND MIXING
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST SOUND EDITING
Argo
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Amour
Looper
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty