Love and scandal are the best sweeteners of tea. —Henry Fielding

11 March 2026

Oscar Nominations 2025: Post 11 of 11 (with Final Predictions)

1. Sinners, One Battle after Another, Sentimental Value

The final three films in this year's slate of nominees are:

Den Stygge Stesøsteren (The Ugly Stepsister)
1 nomination
  • Makeup & Hairstyling
DirectorEmilie Blichfeldt
Cast: Lea Myren, Ane Dahl Torp, Thea Sofie Loch Næss, Flo Fagerli, Isac Calmroth, Malte Gårdinger, Ralph Carlsson, Cecilia Forss, Katarzyna Herman, Adam Lundgren, Willy Ramnek Petri

This is a wacky, funny, and rather disgusting retelling of a story you know very well. The Ugly Stepsister is really, really gross, and I spent a good portion of it just like Flo Fagerli in the image above—with my hands over my eyes hoping I wouldn't have to watch toes being cut off or blood gushing out of eyes. But listen, that's what this is about. It's also a particular brand of feminism that we've seen recently with The Substance, where the desire to skewer beauty standards has led us into true gross-out territory. I'm not sure if it reads to me as feminist, honestly, but whatever. It's good at what it's trying to do, anyway. It definitely grossed me out, and it has an amusing, horny, wicked approach to the Cinderella story. Knowing that it's going to get more and more disgusting also created a particular kind of Hitchcockian dread for me as an audience member, and I spent much of my movie holding my breath and filled with anxiety about the damage that would be inflicted on these poor young women.
Will win: N/A
Could win: N/A
My rating: #77 out of 98

Diane Warren: Relentless
1 nomination
  • Original Song - "Dear Me": Diane Warren (The Six Triple Eight, Flamin' Hot, Tell It like a Woman, Four Good Days, The Life Ahead, Breakthrough, RBG, Marshall, The Hunting Ground, Beyond the Lights, Pearl Harbor, Music of the Heart, Armageddon, Con Air, Up Close & Personal, Mannequin) 
DirectorBess Kargman

For your consideration, Diane Warren in Original Song. This is a 92-minute Oscar campaign film. As a film, I'm not really sure how to evaluate it. I guess it's designed as a kind of character study. Warren is sure a quirky figure. And she has, indeed, written some very good pop songs in the last forty years. Some of the big names who get dropped in this movie don't appear, which is a little odd and unfortunate—no Céline, for example, and no Beyoncé (despite both being listed as in the cast in several locations)—but I guess what's even weirder is that the people who do appear (Gloria Estefan, Common, Jennifer Hudson, Toni Braxton, Jerry Bruckheimer), don't have much to say about Warren herself. They just sort of repeat what the rest of us already know about how many hits she's had and how much they wish they'd written the songs themselves. There's a really intriguing moment/scandal, when Trisha Yearwood and LeAnn Rimes took one of Warren's songs to #1 and #2 because they had competing versions of the same tune. This happened in 1997/1998 and the film mentions it but then moves on immediately without delving into what was going on with Warren at the time, why she did what she did, what the fallout was, etc. In any case, I think the film just misses a lot of opportunities for us actually to learn about who this woman is. Instead, the movie opts for Oscar campaigning. At the film's end we even get a title card that says she's been nominated for the Oscar 15 times; no mention of the Grammys or Emmys she's actually won. Indeed, no footage from those ceremonies. This movie has its eye on the Oscars. What's so weird to me about all of this is that despite Warren's obvious desire to win an Oscar, she hasn't actually tried very hard to win one, and she hasn't learned how to win one in the last two decades, nor does she seem to be able to analyze the situation. There's an entire, extended sequence about the song she and Gaga wrote for a documentary called The Hunting Ground in which it appears that she thought she was going to *finally* win that year (this was in 2016). Diane Warren: Relentless behaves as if Warren was a real contender that year, but she wasn't. The James Bond movie Spectre had it sewn up, and everyone knew it. No one saw that documentary, and although the performance onstage that year at the Oscars was very powerful, Warren was never going to win that Oscar. Diane Warren is nominated every year, sure. This is her seventeenth nomination, and she's been nominated 11 times in the last 12 years; that's all good and well. But she's only trying to get nominated—not win. The movies she's writing for haven't been memorable since Pearl Harbor in 2001. Not one of the recent nominations is from a movie that was a big deal. For each of them, Warren's nomination is the film's only nomination. If she really wanted to win an Oscar, she'd beg the studios to let her compose a song for a big Oscar-bait blockbuster—one of the Avatars, or a new Spielberg movie, or something directed by Guillermo del Toro. She writes songs for movies no one sees! I'm sure she'll be baffled as to why she didn't win yet again this year.
Will win: N/A
Could win: N/A
My rating: Not ranked (but this is a bad movie)

Viva Verdi!
1 nomination
  • Original Song - "Sweet Dreams of Joy": Nicholas Pike (1st time nominee)
DirectorYvonne Russo

This is a meandering documentary that doesn’t know what story it has to tell or whom to follow. I’m actually quite confused by the way it works. Some of the people in the film died over seven years ago, though the film behaves as if they’re still alive—until the final credits when we realize they passed many years ago. But the real issue is that this should probably have been a 20-minute short and it has no business being a 75-minute feature. It repeats itself frequently, and we rarely learn anything new after the film’s opening sequences. It’s directed without intention, as if the filmmakers collected footage for a decade without having any idea what they were going to do with it and then produced this scrapbook of a feature as a way to honor their subjects. Don't bother.
Will win: N/A
Could win: N/A
My rating: Not ranked (but this is a terrible movie)

More Oscar posts:


Final Oscar Predictions
Best Picture – Sinners
Director – Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another
Actor – Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Actress – Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Adapted Screenplay – One Battle after Another
Original Screenplay – Sinners
Supporting Actor – Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Supporting Actress – Amy Madigan, Weapons
Film Editing – F1
Cinematography – Train Dreams
International Feature – The Secret Agent
Documentary Feature – Mr. Nobody against Putin
Production Design – Frankenstein
Original Score – Sinners
Costume Design – Frankenstein
Casting – Marty Supreme
Sound – F1
Animated Feature – K-Pop Demon Hunters
Visual Effects – Avatar: Fire and Ash
Makeup & Hairstyling – Frankenstein
Original Song – "Golden", K-Pop Demon Hunters
Animated Short – Butterfly
Documentary Short – All the Empty Rooms
Live-action Short – A Friend of Dorothy

07 March 2026

Oscar Nominations 2025: Post 10 of 11

1. Sinners, One Battle after Another, Sentimental Value

This year's nominees are:

Jurassic World: Rebirth
1 nomination
  • Visual Effects
DirectorGareth Edwards
Cast: Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend, Manuel Garcia-Rulfo, Luna Blaise, David Iacono, Audrina Miranda, Philippine Velge, Bechir Sylvain, Ed Skrein, Adam Loxley, Niamh Finlay

For some reason this is a movie about sadness? Like, everyone, in Jurassic World: Rebirth is so sad and unhappy, and it was really difficult for me to invest in any of these people. This has some cool sequences, but it’s such a downer. It’s Jurassic Park as a disaster film, and because it approaches its subject matter earnestly, this means feeling every loss in the disaster and taking time to mourn the fallen characters whom we never got to know in the first place. The leads are competent—Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, and Rupert Friend are all great and perfect in their parts. But there’s also an annoyingly earnest B-plot, with four actors I’ve never seen before. They all do a fine job, but Gareth Edwards doesn’t introduce them to us until 25 minutes into the movie, so they feel like an afterthought for the rest of the running time, though I think Edwards thinks they’re supposed to be the emotional center of the movie or something like that. The whole thing is ridiculous. And the big bad at the end is disgusting-looking. Mostly, though, I just don’t understand why an adventure–monster movie needs to be so deeply invested in processing depression and lack of fulfillment. Why couldn’t this be more fun? Why make a monster movie that’s a drag? This ends up being one of the worst movies of the year.
Will win: N/A
Could win: N/A
My rating: #95 out of 98

The Lost Bus
1 nomination
  • Visual Effects
DirectorPaul Greengrass
Cast: Matthew McConaughey, America Ferrera, Yul Vazquez, Ashlie Atkinson, Kimberli Flores, Levi McConaughey, Kay McConaughey, John Messina, Kate Wharton, Danny McCarthy, Spencer Watson

Fellow visual effects nominee The Lost Bus is an infinitely better film than Jurassic World: Rebirth with a bigger movie star, but this was an AppleTV+ film and so almost no one saw it. This is very very unfortunate because The Lost Bus is really strong. It’s a fast-paced action film that mounts tension expertly and beautifully pays off. McConaughey and the rest of the cast are excellent, but the star here are the extraordinary effects and the sure hand of Paul Greengrass, who has been giving us great politically focused action movies for two decades. It's a movie about climate change without being a movie about climate change, and it highlights the very hard work that real firefighters, schoolteachers, and other real people (not politicians or finance executives) did to save lives during the Paradise fire in California. This movie's great. Unfortunately none of us can watch it on big screens. 
Will win: N/A
Could win: N/A
My rating: #21 out of 98

Kokuho
(国宝)
1 nomination
  • Makeup & Hairstyling
DirectorLee Sang-il
Cast: Yoshizawa Ryo, Yokohama Ryusei, Takahata Mitsuki, Terajima Shinobu, Kurokawa Soya, Koshiyama Keitatsu, Tanaka Min, Ken Watanabe, Nana Mori, Takahiro Miura, Ai Mikami, Masatoshi Nagase, Shimada Kyūsaku

Epic! At three hours this is a bit of a prohibitive watch, but it's filed with excellent performances and—especially—some wonderful kabuki on film. The central figure in this is a bit of an enigma, and perhaps because the film jumps temporally as much as it does, we get less insight than we probably should into who he is. We get much, much more insight into his partner's world, the man who is not nearly as good of a kabuki performer in the film. Yokohama Ryusei is wonderful in this. The movie itself is messy, but it kind of doesn't matter. The whole thing is immensely compelling. (Incidentally, Kokuho means national treasure, which makes sense in the context of the film, but of course one could never call this film "National Treasure" in English.) One more thing: it's odd that gender doesn't come up at all in this movie except for two little moments at the end of the second act and beginning of the third. An audience member assumes that Kikuo is a woman and wishes for something more but then becomes violent when he understands that he's a man; then two scenes later two men refer to a 90-year-old onnagata as "the old lady" but then correct themselves. These are intriguing moments, but the film itself does nothing with them. Lee Sang-il is simply not interested in the complex gender experience of these men who play women onstage. And I guess that's a little weird to me, but the movie's definitely still worth watching.
Will win: N/A
Could win: N/A
My rating: #32 out of 98

The Smashing Machine
1 nomination
  • Makeup & Hairstyling
DirectorBenny Safdie
Cast: Dwayne Johnson, Emily Blunt, Ryan Bader, Bas Rutten, Lyndsey Gavin, Zoe Kosovic, Oleksandr Usyk, Satoshi Ishii, James Moontasri, Yoko Hamamura, Paul Cheng, André Tricoteux, Marcus Aurelio, Roberto "Cyborg" Abreu, Jerin Valel, Raja Flores

This is a weird film. It’s weird because—in the first place—it’s a sports film that really avoids quite a few of the sports-movie tropes, and this makes the movie better than those movies but not quite as satisfying emotionally as most of them. It’s also weird because—in the second place—Safdie is invested in us having complex feelings about his characters and the things they do, and we aren’t used to that. I don’t know, though… for me this was good but not great. It has some excellent elements—the sound is incredible, the score is so great, the makeup is amazing—but much of The Smashing Machine consists of melodramatic, petty fights. And those were not very interesting to me. (Except for this one moment when The Rock smashed a door in a room where there really should not have been a door in the first place.) In any case, The Smashing Machine doesn't build tension the way a usual Safdie Brothers movie would. This is a true story, and its dependent on its real subject matter, but I suspect that the screenwriter amped up the Emily Blunt part so the actress could have more to do. This works well for Emily Blunt, but it makes the movie a good deal less enjoyable; she really shouldn't be the focus of this movie.
Will win: N/A
Could win: N/A
My rating: #44 out of 98

All 2025 Oscar posts:

03 March 2026

Oscar Nominations 2025: Post 9 of 11 (Live-action Shorts)

1. Sinners, One Battle after Another, Sentimental Value
8. Animated Short Films

I changed my mind and decided to watch the live-action shorts. I don't know why I did this, but I guess I was feeling hopeful. This year's Live-action Short Film nominees are:

A Friend of Dorothy
1 nomination
  • Live-action Short
DirectorLee Knight
Cast: Miriam Margolyes, Alistair Nwachukwu, Stephen Fry, Oscar Lloyd

Miriam Margolyes is very cute in this, but this is schmaltzy. All three of the central characters are drawn in two dimensions, and Oscar Lloyd's performance is truly horrific. This is not a film about this particular woman at all, but "old people"; it's not a film about this young man but "aspiring young gay kids who want to be actors" or maybe just "how young people ought to be". Even its version of homosexuality is very silly—its chief references are Martin Sherman's Bent and Matthew Lopez's The Inheritance—a particular touch that could not be more on the nose. This overplays its hand in a big way, and this becomes decidedly tiresome by the time she tells the young man that she's never ever been seen by anyone in her whole life until he came along. Like... really? Who believes this? One thing: I adored a tiny sequence in the movie when the young man is in the shop and looks at the other gay stranger and then looks down at that tiny boy in a suit. That got a big laugh out of me in the theatre—none of the fifty elderly people in the theatre laughed, though, so I must have been the lone friend of Dorothy there. Anyway everyone else seems to love this. The Queer Cinema Archives instagram account just featured it, and you can watch it on YouTube. Smells like a winner to me.
Will win: Live-action Short
Could win: N/A
My rating: #5 out of 5

Jane Austen's Period Drama
1 nomination
  • Live-action Short
DirectorsJulia AksSteve Pinder
Cast: Aks, Ta'imua, Samantha Smart, Nicole Alyse Nelson, Hugo Armstrong, Marilyn Brett, Dustin Ingram

This made me laugh, but it's pretty dumb. It's an extended comedy sketch that became a short film. It works well for what it is, and the names of the women are legitimately hilarious. But... there's something weird for me about using the idealized Jane Austen narrative to do this. It seems also to be making fun of Jane Austen, and I am not specifically opposed to this, but it makes the film seem off to me. In any case, this is quite funny, and I had a good enough time with it. It just felt extravagantly silly.
Will win: N/A
Could win: Live-action Short
My rating: #4 out of 5

The Singers
1 nomination
  • Live-action Short
DirectorsSam Davis
Cast: Michael Young, Chris Smither, Will Harrington, Judah Kelly, Matt Corcoran, Michael Keyes, Leroy Griffith, Daniel "Hutch" Hutchinson, David Scott "Muffin" McMurry, Luis "Tio Rigo" Rigoberto Amaya, Arthur "Roy" Farewell, Graham Mackie, Robert Broski, Jim Donnelly, David Jenner, Brian Coover, Jorge "Mr. George" Antonio Linares, Reuben L. "Rocket" Gonzales, Steve Corning

I liked this a lot. It moved nicely between different conversations without worrying too much about making sure we understood what was going on, and I liked the Russian-night-with-endless-snow of it all. This felt like something out of Turgenev or Chekhov (which of course it is), but by this I mean that it has a gentle humorous attitude toward its characters that is both mocking and loving, ironic and generous at the same time. I am especially fond of the scene where the young man leaves the bar quietly without telling anyone. For me, though, the hug was too much. This film is the one with Netflix money behind it. I don't think it can win because it's way too much of a monosexual all-male environment for voters—especially given the gay leanings of Dorothy and the feminist bent of Period Drama. But I do think this has a chance to spoil, and it is legitimately good, so that wouldn't be amiss.
Will win: N/A
Could win: Live-action short
My rating: #3 out of 5

Butcher's Stain (כתם קצבים)
1 nomination
  • Live-action Short
DirectorsMeyer Levinson-Blount
Cast: Omar Sameer, Rona Toledano, Levinson-Blount, Dror Marko, Sara Raed, Oron Caspi, Eilon Cohen, Hadi Salama

Butcher's Stain won 2nd place at the Student Academy Awards in October 2025 so it comes to this with some pedigree already—Academy voters like this. Unfortunately, I don't think this really does much of anything, though. It's a kind of analysis of a problem that sees the main issue is people who jump to conclusions too quickly. Which, isn't really analysis: it's more like a proposal for everyone to slow down. Not a terrible proposal, but not one with any teeth to it either. I did like the ending of this. I don't think I have much more to say, though. I think I've grown tired of films with strong moral points of view.
Will win: N/A
Could win: N/A
My rating: #2 out of 5

Deux Personnes Échangeant de la Salive 
(Two People Exchanging Saliva)
1 nomination
  • Live-action Short
DirectorsNatalie MusteataAlexandre Singh
Cast: Zar Amir Ebrahimi, Luàna Bajrami, Aurélie Boquien, Vicky Krieps, Nicolas Bouchaud, Mitchell Jean, Mustapha Abourachid, Thibault De Lussy, Lucile Jaillant

This is my favorite of the five. It definitely goes on a bit too long, but it's intriguing and enjoyable, even if at times the prohibition on kissing in this world feels a bit, well... twee. I think perhaps I also just loved Zar Amir Ebrahimi, who is wonderful in this. And I adored the fashions (designed by Rezvan Farsijani) in this little film. They feel original and playful, and make this short film feel very expensive. The audience I was with did not care for this film at all. The over-sixty crowd I saw the movie with were actually incredulous. They thought it made no sense at all and was just weird for the sake of being weird. This is, in fact, a Greek Weird Wave film—even if the director isn't Greek—it's the kind of film Yorgos Lanthimos used to make, or that Christos Nikou and Athina Rachel Tsangari still make. It's designed to start us thinking about our own world by displacing a series of things that we take for granted and then studying its own characters. I found this film quite rich.
Will win: N/A
Could win: N/A
My rating: #1 out of 5