Oscar Nominations 2023: 1 of 9

Every year I post about each of the films nominated for Oscars—this year there are 38 features plus 15 short films. Usually, I see all of them except for the documentaries (I am just not that interested in documentary film; I'm not sure why), but this year I'm also going to do myself a favor and skip the live-action short films. As a group they tend to be terrible every single year, and then for some reason the worst one usually manages to win. 

This year there is a lot for me to appreciate; many of my favorite films of the year got at least one nomination (Oppenheimer, Past Lives, American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall). I am not sure I understand the incredible amount of love the Academy has for what I thought were total snooze-fests (Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things), but who knows; other people have different tastes than I do. 

I guess it's worth saying one more thing about Barbie, since that movie is taking up most of the social media oxygen at the moment. I'll just say one thing flatly: if you seriously think Barbie missed out on a Best Director nomination, it is my humble opinion that you need to see more movies. Is it true that more women should be nominated for Best Director? It absolutely is. But it's not the director of Barbie who was overlooked in this category: it was Carla Simón, Erige Sehiri, Chie Hayakawa, Léa Mysius, Manuela Martelli, and especially Celine Song. Each of these women made amazing movies this year, and the only reason we're not talking about them is that our own viewing preferences skew white and corporate and American, and not enough people have seen their movies. I would encourage everyone to watch more films directed by women. There were many great ones this year, especially: my top 11 for 2023 includes 6 films directed by women.

That's just what I liked, though. The more complicated issue is how nominees are selected in the first place. Each voter selects five names. But only one of those names gets a vote. So let's say my top 5 directors were Cord Jefferson, Justine Triet, Christopher Nolan, Celine Song, and Carla Simón. That would be my list this year, but then I'd need to rank them. If I rank them (1) Simón, (2) Triet, (3) Song, (4) Jefferson, and (5) Nolan, then my vote would end up counting for Justine Triet and no one else. Here is why: the way they count the votes is to stack them all by who you vote for #1. My vote for Carla Simón would have been eliminated after the first round because she didn't get enough number 1 votes; then my vote would have been moved to the Triet pile, which just got bigger. And now my vote doesn't count at all for any of the names that are lower on my list. This means that the ranking actually matters during the vote, and names at the top matter way more. What happened with Barbie, then, is that not enough of the voters in the Directing branch put Gerwig at the top of their ballots. Which, I think, makes sense. The directing isn't what is most sensational about Barbie.

The problem for me every year is that the Academy concentrates their nominations on 5 or 6 movies and don't see more movies or spread the wealth better. This is, I think, the exact opposite issue from the complaint that Barbie only got 8 nominations instead of 10. I would have preferred fewer nominations for Barbie and more solo call-outs for excellent work in only one category, like the wonderful lone nomination for El Conde's cinematography! Nominations like that show that that branch is actually watching things (unlike this year's production design and costume design nominations – which are identical: zzzz). 

I will go film by film discussing each movie individually rather than discussing categories, beginning with the movies most beloved by the Academy this year. If the nominee has been nominated for Oscars previously, they will be listed next to their name in parentheses). This year's nominees:

Oppenheimer

13 nominations

• Picture
• Director: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
• Actor: Cillian Murphy
• Adapted Screenplay: Christopher Nolan (Inception, Memento)
• Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder, Chaplin)
• Supporting Actress: Emily Blunt
• Film Editing: Jennifer Lame
• Cinematography: Hoyte van Hoytema (Dunkirk)
• Production Design: Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman
• Original Score: Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Black Panther)
• Costume Design: Ellen Mirojnick
• Sound
• Makeup & Hairstyling

Director: Nolan

Cast: Murphy, Blunt, Downey, Alden Ehrenreich, Florence Pugh, Benny Safdie, Tom Conti, Matt Damon, Jason Clarke, Josh Hartnett, David Krumholtz, Trond Fausa, Casey Affleck, Rami Malek

I loved this. I saw it in IMAX with what appeared to be everyone in the Physics department at FSU. The acting is wonderful, and I loved the usual Christopher Nolan time puzzle. I have complained for a long time that Nolan's movies are soulless, and I rather expected this one to be that too, but it isn't. I was very moved by it, and found the whole thing fascinating. In fact, I've been loving Christopher Nolan's movies lately. I even loved Tenet. My favorite performances in Oppenheimer were Emily Blunt, Alden Ehrenreich, Trond Fausa, Benny Safdie, and Cillian Murphy, but I think just the amazing list of actors in this pushes Oppenheimer over the edge. It's an actor-fest, a marvel of technical work, and the script is great. I expect this to win a lot of Oscars. I think it's hard to be mad about this, too. Nolan has never won Best Director (it's only his second nomination!) and Cillian Murphy has never been nominated, let alone won. If you look at the list of contributors above, you'll see that this is the first nomination for almost everyone, so giving them Oscars is exciting. It's not like this is the Scorsese team, who have all been nominated 10 times apiece and already have 2 statues at home. These women and men are a new generation of filmmakers who the Academy has never honored before.

Will win: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Film Editing, Cinematography

Could win: Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Original Score, Sound, Makeup & Hairstyling

My rating: #2 out of 71

Poor Things

11 nominations

• Picture
• Director: Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
• Actress: Emma Stone (The Favourite, La La Land, Birdman or (the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance))
• Adapted Screenplay: Tony McNamara (The Favourite)
• Supporting Actor: Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight, Foxcatcher, The Kids Are All Right)
• Film Editing: Yorgos Mavropsaridis (The Favourite)
• Cinematography: Robbie Ryan (The Favourite)
• Production Design: Shona Heath & Zsuzsa Mihalek & James Price
• Original Score: Jerskin Fendrix
• Costume Design: Holly Waddington
• Makeup & Hairstyling

Director: Lanthimos

Cast: Stone, Ruffalo, Willem Dafoe, Ramy Youssef, Kathryn Hunter, Christopher Abbot, Jerrod Carmichael, Hanna Schygulla, Suzy Bemba, Vicki Pepperdine

I found this movie boring, and all of the awards love it has received is baffling to me. I found the performances in this weird and not very honest, and I think, weirdly, that Stone and Ruffalo were two of the people I liked least – the worst performance was definitely Jerrod Carmichael's. But hey, whatever, people like things that I don't like, and that's how it goes. I really hope I like Lanthimos's next movie better, because I actually do like his work, including the last movie of his that the Academy loved, The Favourite. Still, expect this to win a few Oscars below the line on March 10th, and actually... Emma Stone could win another Oscar. There seems to be a lot of love for her around, so if people decide to vote against the Lily Gladstone avalanche, they'll vote for Stone.

Will win: Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

Could win: Actress, Production Design

My rating: #60 out of 71

Killers of the Flower Moon

(𐓀𐒻͘𐓂͘𐓄𐒰 𐒹𐒿𐒰𐓆𐒼𐒰 𐓓𐒻͘𐒼𐒰 𐓊'𐒷𐓍𐒷)

10 nominations

• Picture
• Director: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman, The Wolf of Wall Street, Hugo, The Departed, The Aviator, Gangs of New York, GoodFellas, The Last Temptation of Christ, Raging Bull)
• Actress: Lily Gladstone
• Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook, Cape Fear, Awakenings, Raging Bull, The Deer Hunter, Taxi Driver, The Godfather: Part II)
• Film Editing: Thelma Schoonmaker (The Irishman, Hugo, The Departed, The Aviator, Gangs of New York, GoodFellas, Raging Bull, Woodstock: 3 Days of Peace & Music)
• Cinematography: Rodrigo Prieto (The Irishman, Silence, Brokeback Mountain)
• Production Design: Jack Fisk (The Revenant, There Will Be Blood) & Adam Willis
• Original Score: Robbie Robertson
• Costume Design: Jacqueline West (Dune: Part One, The Revenant, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Quills)
• Original Song – "Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)": Scott George

Director: Scorsese

Cast: Leonardo DiCaprio, Gladstone, De Niro, Jesse Plemons, Scott Shepherd, Tantoo Cardinal, Cara Jade Myers, JaNae Collins, Jillian Dion, John Lithgow, Tatanka Means, Everett Waller, Talee Redcorn, Yancey Red Corn, Jason Isbell, Brendan Fraser

This is another movie that did not work for me and that I thought was quite boring. This is a very frustrating film, and it drove me a little crazy. It's also a thousand years long, for reasons I don't really understand. But the real issue for me – and I've already said this, so I'm sorry for repeating myself – is that this film is only from the perspective of the Osage people at the very beginning and the very end. The remainder is a film made from the emotional and narrative perspective of people who tried to murder them. This is intensely frustrating, and it belies everything that Scorsese and everyone else involved with this movie said was supposed to be happening. (For example, we see the murder of Anna three separate times on screen in Flower Moon; not one of these is from her perspective. It's actually shocking when you think about it. We watch her murder three times from the point of view of her murderers??? What kind of ethical filmmaking choice is that?) This movie was the critical darling of the year, and I thought for a bit it would win the big award and maybe win everything else, too, but I think Killers of the Flower Moon is on the descent. Note its surprise omission from the Adapted Screenplay category! Even Lily Gladstone, who has been the presumptive Best Actress winner for months, may find herself in real competition with Emma Stone. I think Lily Gladstone is rather boring in this movie – the whole movie is boring; it's not her fault, really – but I will be happy for her to win. She's a cool woman, and she's been making good independent movies for years.

Will win: Actress, Original Score

Could win: Picture, Director, Production Design, Costume Design

My rating: #53 out of 71

Barbie

8 nominations

• Picture
• Adapted Screenplay: Greta Gerwig (Little Women, Lady Bird) & Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story, The Squid and the Whale)
• Supporting Actor: Ryan Gosling (La La Land, Half Nelson)
• Supporting Actress: America Ferrera
• Production Design: Sarah Greenwood (Darkest Hour, Beauty and the Beast, Anna Karenina, Sherlock Holmes, Atonement, Pride & Prejudice) & Katie Spencer (Darkest Hour, Beauty and the Beast, Anna Karenina, Sherlock Holmes, Atonement, Pride & Prejudice) 
• Costume Design: Jacqueline Durran (Cyrano, Little Women, Darkest Hour, Beauty and the Beast, Mr. Turner, Anna Karenina, Atonement, Pride & Prejudice) 
• Original Song – "I'm Just Ken": Mark Ronson (A Star Is Born) & Andrew Wyatt (A Star Is Born)
• Original Song – "What Was I Made For?": Billie Eilish (No Time to Die) & Finneas O'Connell (No Time to Die)

Director: Gerwig

Cast: Margot Robbie, Gosling, Ferrera, Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae, America Ferrera, Dua Lipa, Simu Liu, Alexandra Shipp, Emma Mackey, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Rhea Perlman, Will Ferrell, Helen Mirren, Ariana Greenblatt, Michael Cera

This is a very funny movie, and I had a great time at it. I still laugh once a week at Issa Rae's delivery of "Oh? Is this The GodFATHer?" I did think the movie didn't really stick its ending, though. I mean, why would anyone choose to be a real human person when one could be a doll and not have to work? No thanks. In many ways, the end of this movie felt to me like an apologia for mainstream culture, and that didn't sit well with me. In any case, the script (it's an original script, despite appearing in the adapted category) is great, and it was really excellent to see America Ferrera's surprise nomination. I'm so pleased about that. She's a jobbing actor who has been working hard for years – as long ago as Josefina López's Real Women Have Curves, the play. There's lots to be excited about here, and the Academy obviously loved this film. This and Oppenheimer and Mario Bros. and Dead Reckoning Part One really saved the box office receipts this year, too, so it deserves props for that as well (even though Mario and Dead Reckoning did not receive any similar affection from the Academy). One more thing: I think the backlash related to Barbie missing out on Best Director and Best Actress nominations may translate into more wins on March 10th, so I expect it to take home a couple more than I would have predicted if this movie had ended up with 10 nominations instead of 8.

Will win: Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Song

Could win: Picture, Costume Design

My rating: #23 out of 71

Maestro

8 nominations

• Picture
• Actor: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born, American Sniper, American Hustle, Silver Linings Playbook)
• Actress: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman, An Education)
• Original Screenplay: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) & Josh Singer (Spotlight)
• Cinematography: Matthew Libatique (A Star Is Born, Black Swan)
  
• Sound
• Makeup & Hairstyling

Director: Cooper

Cast: Cooper, Mulligan, Matt Bomer, Vincenzo Amato, Sarah Silverman, Maya Hawke, Michael Urie, Sam Nivola, Alexa Swinton, Miriam Shor

This is a very good movie that I think is a little tough to love, and so it isn't much of a surprise to me that people liked it less than (I feel like) they ought to have. There's a way, too, that the movie is very hard on Leonard Bernstein, a man beloved by many in Hollywood, despite the way the movie actually adores him and sympathizes with him. I've already written about how well I think Cooper did with this and how fucking great Carey Mulligan is, so I won't say any more about that. But... I don't think this will be winning any Oscars on March 10th. 7 nominations is a lot, so the Academy definitely respects it, but it's not taking home any gold. The only real category it could win in – Makeup – has really polarized people. The other day one of my students told me he couldn't take the movie seriously because the makeup was too silly (!). I really liked this movie, though, and I think it deserves its nominations and maybe more.

Will win: N/A

Could win: Makeup & Hairstyling

My rating: #17 out of 71

More posts coming soon:

2. Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, The Holdovers, American Fiction

3. Napoleon, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, Nyad

4. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, The Creator, Rustin, May December

5. The Color Purple, El Conde, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

6. Animated Features

7. Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Golda, American Symphony, Flamin' Hot

8. Animated Short Films

9. Perfect Days, The Teachers' Lounge, Io Capitano

Partial December Movie Round-up

Jay Roach's Bombshell is the movie about Gretchen Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and what I assume is a (fictional and likeable) version of Tomi Lahren. They're women who work at Fox News, and the plot of Bombshell is the takedown of Fox News head Roger Ailes.

You know how this ends. In fact, you probably know a lot about this story of sexual harassment, sexual misconduct, and rank misogyny.

Bombshell takes a jaunty, slightly mocking tone with this story – in the vein of The Big Short and Vice. This movie is (and I am not the first person to say this) better than Vice but not as good as The Big Short. Even more, there's something about the way this particular Brechtian film works that makes the facts of the story seem like they might actually be fictional, or at least exaggerated. A part of that has to do with the fact that this is a story about Fox News, which is a "news" outlet that cannot be trusted even to report the actual news. The other reason for this is that what happens at Fox already feels so absurd and insane. The real people are themselves over the top and seem slightly unhinged. As a result, even if the events portrayed in the film actually happened, one has the feeling that what is happening can't totally be trusted.

But the acting is pretty great. Charlize Theron is doing a strange but compelling impersonation of Megyn Kelly (the voice isn't quite right, but I didn't really mind), and Nicole Kidman's Gretchen Carlson is less of an impersonation than a powerful interpretation. Kidman is best in show, but Margot Robbie, Kate MacKinnon, Holland Taylor, Allison Janney, Liv Hewson, Brigette Lundy-Paine, Mark Duplass, Robin Weigert, and Malcolm McDowell are all great. For me, John Lithgow's Roger Ailes felt a little cartoony, but, as I say, the whole of Bombshell is a little cartoony, so this is perhaps not quite a fair criticism of his performance as such. Obviously the film hates this character, and so it's a difficult one to play.

Bombshell works, but it does feel a bit shallow. There are clear good guys in this movie and clear bad guys. There's also a right thing to do, and that is never really interrogated in this movie. In fact, not much is interrogated in this movie. It's a movie with a clear winner and a clear morality and not a lot of room for nuance. I think it could have benefited from a bit of that missing nuance. I would've liked a bit more interrogation into Fox News itself as a purveyor of misogyny, racism, and homophobia and how those values intersect and contribute to the sexual exploitation of women. It might also have been interesting to go the other way and explore this story alongside of the other enormous #MeToo stories. This felt a bit like fuel for a leftist fire already ablaze and not a serious exploration of sexual harrassment, the 24-hour news cycle, the values of television, the values of American Conservatism, or anything else.

I don't want to knock Bombshell too much because it has quite a few redeeming qualities, but it doesn't set out to do very much.

Oscar: I think we're looking at probably three acting nominations. Screenplay seems likely, as well. And film editing. Makeup & Hairstyling is also a fairly obvious nomination (and likely win – Theron looks amazing). So... 6.

* * *

I loved Marriage Story. The title is an intriguing sleight of hand: this is, of course, a divorce story. But Baumbach makes the brilliant choice to begin his movie with all of the tiny things that this couple loves about one another, and so the film starts with us understanding just how much the two main characters belong together – just how much they worked. And then 8 minutes into the movie, we understand that they're already at each other's throats.

Totally generous to the two people at its center, Marriage Story also felt (at least to me) as though it didn't choose sides. At its ugliest moments, the film is also at its most compassionate. But Baumbach's movie is also beautifully calibrated and balanced between very funny broad comedy, incisive and clever satire, and serious drama. It switches modes expertly and with complete confidence. It's heartbreaking and silly and bright and sober, one right after the other.

It's interesting to me that the clip of the film that went viral that everyone was mocking – the fight in Adam Driver's apartment – hit me as the emotional climax of the film. Folks laughed, but I knew nothing of their mockery and I found this sequence absolutely heartbreaking.

The acting is also wonderful. Laura Dern has a flashy role as a razor-sharp, not-to-be-trusted lawyer, and Ray Liotta as her rival is wonderful. Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson are both excellent. I've never loved either of them more.

Oscar: Three acting nominations here, too. Screenplay, Best Picture, Best Director. I think that's probably all, but that's a lot: 6.

* * *

I really didn't like Little Women. In the first place, we don't need a fourth adaptation of this book. The most recent one (25 years old now) was just fine. In the second place, Greta Gerwig's adaptation attempts to work against its source material basically for its entire running time, as though it wants to say that what is basically a non-feminist story is actually feminist. This movie apologizes for its source material. Gerwig has created a kind of frame for the movie so that she can comment on the way the original story works. This isn't a terrible idea, but it does lead me to wonder why she wanted to adapt this novel in the first place. It felt to me as though she was trying to save the novel or redeem it.

Saoirse Ronan is excellent as always, as are Timothée Chalamet and Laura Dern. Florence Pugh, however, is insanely miscast. She is supposed to be playing a thirteen year old and she looks about thirty throughout the movie. Her portrayal of Amy March has the largest arc – especially because Gerwig's Little Women wants to redeem Amy and make her into a likable character. (I saw this with a group of friends, and we all remembered refusing to forgive Amy when we originally read the book.) Pugh plays a very bratty young teenager and it's mostly cringe-worthy. She is also really the only character who changes a great deal over the long timespan the film covers, and so she stands out strangely.

Gerwig's film, in fact, has a lot of trouble with the way it manages time. It jumps back and forth in time in ways that don't always work and frequently feel unnatural or forced. The folks I was with found these jumps confusing, but maybe because I read the book so many times as a kid (at least 8; queer childhood is real), I was never really lost. I did find all of the jumps frustrating, though. The adaptation is already doing a kind of greatest hits of the novel's most important emotional moments, and the jumping back and forth just drew attention to the way the film already functioned as a highlight reel.

The supporting cast is mostly good. Chris Cooper has some great scenes; Louis Garrel is perfectly cast. Tracy Letts is excellently bombastic. I didn't like the young woman who played Beth; she was outshone by the other sisters, even though we keep being told (confusingly) that Beth is "the best" sister. In fact, here's one example where, for me, the film wants to have its feminist cake and eat it too. How is Beth "the best of us"? According to what criteria?

I submit that Beth is "the best" according to the criteria of traditional Victorian womanhood, in which she is selfless, caring, nurturing, loving, shy, sexless, without desires of almost any kind except for her family, and she is mostly silent. She has a good heart and doesn't think of herself, and she wants nothing in return for the gifts she gives to others. Now, I don't particularly object to any of these qualities, but my twenty-first-century attitudes toward gender don't allow me to think this makes Beth into "the best". But Louisa May Alcott does think that Beth is objectively the best. In Alcott's novel, Beth is figured as too perfect to exist in the world. It seems to me that Gerwig, too, objects to ideas like this, but maybe not quite enough for my taste. The new film cherry-picks the feminist values the novel has, but retains plenty of other outdated values that I chafed against as a twenty-first-century viewer. Gerwig's film is, thus, confusing in the way it deals with Alcott's value system. Rather than rethink the novel and really change the content so that she could give us a new version of Little Women, to my mind she keeps too much of Alcott's original. She splits the difference and tries to have it both ways. For me this didn't work.

Oscar: I think Saoirse Ronan will get a Best Actress nomination. I think the film will also get an original score nomination. The Art Directors Guild and the Costume Designers Guild both have ignored Little Women, so I would say those nominations feel unlikely at this stage. Makeup & Hairstyling is still a possibility. I say we are looking at 3.

* * *

I really liked the Safdie Brothers' Uncut Gems. It's an uncomfortable film in that what one does is watch the film's main character (played brilliantly by Adam Sandler) fuck up for the entirety of the movie. He just. Keeps. Fucking. Up. Again and again. This is an intensely frustrating but also just plain intense screenplay. Things are going terribly, and this fool cannot seem to right himself. He makes mistake after mistake and there doesn't seem to be a way of making things right and finding balance of some kind.

Sandler is so excellent. And Idina Menzel, Kevin Garnett, LaKeith Stanfield, and (especially) Eric Bogosian are also very, very good.

This is a crime caper, so you have to like things like that in order to like this movie. I love crime films, but I am not sure if I would call Uncut Gems enjoyable. I don't know. It's hard to talk about it. The movie is plainly very, very good, and it's also hard to shake after it's over. But it's just so rough to watch. 

Oscar: I really hope Sandler gets a Best Actor nomination. Screenplay seems likely. I think that may be it, however. I am guessing 2.

Oscar Nominations 2018: Part 2 of 12

Back to Part 1.

My Best of 2017.

Darkest Hour

6 Nominations

• Picture
• Actor: Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
• Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel (Inside Llewyn Davis, Harry Potter and the Half-blood Prince, Un Long Dimanche de Fiançailles (A Very Long Engagement), Le Fabuleux Destin d'Amélie Poulain (Amélie))
• Production Design: Sarah Greenwood (Beauty and the Beast, Anna Karenina, Sherlock Holmes, Atonement, Pride & Prejudice) & Katie Spencer (Beauty and the Beast, Anna Karenina, Sherlock Holmes, Atonement, Pride & Prejudice)
• Costume Design: Jacqueline Durran (Beauty and the Beast, Mr. Turner, Anna Karenina, Atonement, Pride & Prejudice)
• Makeup & Hairstyling

Director: Joe Wright

Cast: Oldman, Lily James, Kristin Scott Thomas, Ben Mendelsohn, Stephen Dillane, Ronald Pickup, Nicholas Jones, Samuel West

This is the most traditional Oscar-bait movie of the year. It's a very good movie that is beautifully directed, gorgeously designed, and finely realized with some lovely performances. Early on in the year, it seemed poised to do very, very well with the Academy, but then most awards bodies ignored Darkest Hour with the exception of Gary Oldman's extraordinary central performance. But the Academy came through after all, and Joe Wright's excellent World War II drama got 6 nominations (a ton if you haven't been counting), including a Best Picture nomination. It deserves all of these nominations – I really liked this film – and will win two well-deserved Oscars.

Will Win: Actor, Makeup & Hairstyling

Could Win: N/A

My Rating: #14 out of 78

Lady Bird

5 Nominations

• Picture
• Director: Greta Gerwig
• Actress: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn, Atonement)
• Original Screenplay: Greta Gerwig
• Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf

Director: Gerwig

Cast: Ronan, Metcalf, Tracy Letts, Beanie Feldstein, Lucas Hedges, Timothée Chalamet, Lois Smith, Stephen Henderson, Jordan Rodrigues, Marielle Scott, Odeya Rush, Jake McDorman, 

Lady Bird for the win! I think that of the most likely winners of the Best Picture Oscar – and it is still very much up in the air – I would be happiest with this one. Lady Bird is an absolute delight, and most importantly: this is a hilarious movie. Unlike most "comedies" that do well during awards season, this one is actually very funny. It also feels true and honest, and at times it becomes quite moving. Its cast is absolute perfection, and it boasts excellent, very very funny performances by the entire ensemble. It's also worth saying that this cast works as an ensemble rather than all simply being good in the movie. They are in tons of scenes together, and each actor manages to steal a scene or two. They are great together. To be honest, I wouldn't have nominated Greta Gerwig in the director category. I love her, but there were many directors who did stronger work than Gerwig this year (Luca Guadagnino, Ruben Östlund, Julia Ducournau). Still, I ain't mad about it.

Will Win: Supporting Actress

Could Win: Picture, Actress, Original Screenplay
My Rating: #11 out of 78

Blade Runner 2049

5 Nominations

• Cinematography: Roger Deakins (Sicario, Unbroken, Prisoners, Skyfall, True Grit, The Reader, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, No Country for Old Men, The Man Who Wasn't There, O Brother Where Art Thou?, Kundun, Fargo, The Shawshank Redemption)
• Production Design: Dennis Gassner (Into the Woods, The Golden Compass, Road to Perdition, Bugsy, Barton Fink)
  
• Visual Effects
• Sound Mixing
• Sound Effects Editing

Director: Denis Villeneuve

Cast: Ryan Gosling, Harrison Ford, Robin Wright, Ana de Armas, Jared Leto, Sylvia Hoeks, Mackenzie Davis, Dave Bautista, Lennie James, Edward James Olmos, Carla Juri, Hiam Abbas, Barkhad Abdi, Wood Harris

I really really liked this movie, and thought that mostly no one else did – it didn't do very well at the box office – but the Academy really liked it, and here it is with five below-the-line nominations. Compare that with several blockbusters like Wonder Woman or Thor: Ragnarok that didn't get any nominations. So I am very happy this showed so well. You can read my review here. Will Deakins finally win his Oscar? It is well deserved, certainly, but as it does every year, it rather seems unlikely again this year, even though I am going to bet on him. It doesn't much matter, I don't think. He will keep doing incredible work, and he will be nominated again in a year or two.

Will Win: Cinematography

Could Win: N/A

My Rating: #19 out of 78

Get Out

4 Nominations

• Picture
• Director: Jordan Peele
• Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
• Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele

Director: Peele

Cast: Kaluuya, Allison Williams, Catherine Keener, LilRel Howery, Bradley Whitford, Caleb Landry Jones, Marcus Henderson, Betty Gabriel, Lakeith Stanfield, Stephen Root

I was sort of baffled by all of the love this received. It's obviously clever, and it's fairly well made, and LilRel Howery is really really funny. But despite an extraordinarily awesome opening scene, I found myself underwhelmed by this movie, and I remain shocked at the way critics and the Academy have embraced it. This is a serviceable horror-comedy film. I liked it, but it also has lots of strange problems. My main take on this movie is that it is a kind of staging of the experience of black American paranoia around white people in chiefly white spaces. This fear is obviously justified – just turn on the news – but for me the movie never moves into really imaginative territory or past this initial bit of cleverness, and Get Out doesn't really have anything new to say about this experience. But that's just me, and I'm not interested in hating on a movie everyone loved. If you loved it, you go right ahead loving it.

Will Win: N/A

Could Win: Original Screenplay
My Rating: #49 out of 78