Final predictions for 2024 after our last three movies of the year:
1 nomination
- Makeup & Hairstyling
Cast: Sebastian Stan, Adam Pearson, Renate Reinsve, Miles G. Jackson, Patrick Wang, Neal Davidson
Not to be confused with Better Man, the Robbie-Williams-as-a-chimpanzee biopic, although I've been confusing their titles until today and probably will continue to confuse their titles. One is nominated for makeup and one for visual effects. But... I didn’t get A Different Man. I think it's badly directed. I spent most of this movie unsure how I felt and as though I had absolutely no access to what was going on with the central character. For me this was a huge problem, because the movie is about the protagonist, but it's never on his side. In fact, I would say that the entire film operates through a vague hostility toward its protagonist, rather like the terrible off-Broadway play that they're rehearsing within the movie. Exemplifying this problem—and contributing to it—is that the score is all wrong for this movie. Umberto Smerilli has given A Different Man a kind of haunting horror-score that builds tension insistently. Except that I think the movie wants to be a comedy. I’m very puzzled. I want to add to all of this that I think Coralie Fargeat's The Substance covers many of the same themes as A Different Man, with perhaps a similar outlook on those themes. And The Substance is a more enjoyable film than this—and I say that as someone who wasn't crazy about that movie either.
Will win: N/A
Could win: N/A
My rating: #85 out of 99
1 nomination
- Original Song – "Never Too Late": Elton John (Rocketman, The Lion King, The Lion King, The Lion King) & Bernie Taupin (Rocketman) & Brandi Carlile & Andrew Watt (1st time nominees)
The problem with Elton John: Never Too Late is that we have all already seen Rocketman, and this hagiographical film doesn’t feel like new territory at all. in fact, this whole movie feels very PG, and very earnest about its toothlessness. It's as if it’s a movie made for families about a family—indeed it is a movie co-directed by David Furnish, who has been in a relationship with Elton John since the early 1990s. Elton’s husband, kids, nephew, and mother, all make appearances. The entire operation is all quite wholesome, and I mean that derogatorily if that isn’t quite clear. It makes for an uninteresting portrait of the singer, or at least certainly one that is a lot less interesting than the one in Rocketman. The film's bright spot for me is a section about Elton’s friendship with John Lennon, and it was cool to learn about how Lennon’s last appearance onstage (with Elton!) brought him and Yoko back together. Could this win the Original Song award? I think maybe it could.
Will win: N/A
Could win: Original Song
My rating: Unranked (I don't rank documentaries)
1 nomination
- Original Song – "The Journey": Diane Warren (Flamin' Hot, Tell It like a Woman, Four Good Days, The Life Ahead, Breakthrough, RBG, Marshall, The Hunting Ground, Beyond the Lights, Pearl Harbor, Music of the Heart, Armageddon, Con Air, Up Close & Personal, Mannequin)
Cast: Ebony Obsidian, Kerry Washington, Milauna Jackson, Kylie Jefferson, Shanice Shantay, Sarah Jeffery, Pepi Sonuga, Moriah Brown, Jeanté Godlock, Gregg Sulkin, Donna Biscoe, Baadja-Lyne Odums, Susan Sarandon, Sam Waterston, Dean Norris
Here we are with the annual Diane Warren nomination. Usually Diane Warren manages to write a song for one of the worst movies of the year, but I gotta say: this isn't nearly as bad as I expected. The script is horrible, the politics are questionable, and the historiography is inaccurate, but The Six Triple Eight is not without its pleasures. My problem with this is that I am not interested in these candy-coated movies about segregation. Ever since The Help we have had these movies, and I hate the way they serve a kind of US nationalist project by making the argument that Black folks fought for the country and did amazing things in service of the nation. It’s just crazy to me that these films have no critique of that same nation; in fact, they wind up celebrating the nation. It’s so annoying to learn in a movie like The Six Triple Eight that racism isn’t actually a structural issue: there are so many good white folks; racism is just the result of a few (powerful) bad apples. I think this is one of the reasons I liked Nickel Boys so much—it’s about this same period of time, but it tries to get at what was going on in the country in a much more realistic way. The Six Triple Eight instead is a kind of highlight reel of this battalion, with so many overt fictionalizations (those salutes in the train station!) that the movie occasionally just feels absurd. Will Diane Warren win her Oscar this year? I hope she wins soon, honestly, because saving a slot in the nominations for her ever year is silly. Warren has been nominated ten of the last eleven years (2015-2025)—and another six times before that between 1988 and 2002.
Will win: N/A
Could win: N/A
My rating: #86 out of 99
More 2024 posts:
This has been a very volatile Oscar season, and I have had to switch up many of my final predictions. Things keep changing, and it feels like even Best Picture is a toss-up, really...
Final Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture – Anora
Director – Sean Baker, Anora
Actor – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Actress – Demi Moore, The Substance
Adapted Screenplay – Conclave
Original Screenplay – Anora
Supporting Actor – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Supporting Actress – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Film Editing – The Brutalist
Cinematography – Dune: Part Two
International Feature – I'm Still Here
Documentary Feature – Porcelain War
Production Design – Conclave
Original Score – The Brutalist
Costume Design – Wicked
Sound – A Complete Unknown
Animated Feature – The Wild Robot
Visual Effects – Dune: Part Two
Makeup & Hairstyling – The Substance
Original Song – "Never Too Late", Elton John: Never Too Late
Animated Short – Yuck!
Documentary Short – Incident
Live-action Short – Anuja
