But Who Is Going to Win?

Below are my predictions, although I have to admit that for a good half of these I honestly have no idea who'll be winning – something I find very exciting!

Best Picture
I predict to win: Argo
I'm rooting for: Beasts of the Southern Wild 
(I originally predicted Argo. That's still happening)

Best Director
I predict to win: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
I'm rooting for: Michael Haneke for Amour
(I originally predicted Haneke here, but let's be real, that's not gonna happen. Everyone is saying that it is either Ang Lee or Steven Spielberg is going to win this, and honestly, I couldn't tell you which one will win. It's a toss up. But what if Ben Affleck could muster a write-in campaign? Haha. Anything is possible this year.)

Best Actor
I predict to win: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
I'm rooting for: Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
(I originally predicted Day-Lewis for this. That's still happening.)

Best Actress
I predict to win: Emannuelle Riva for Amour (in an upset)
I'm rooting for: Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
(I originally predicted Chastain for this, but evidently everyone is crazy and doesn't think she is as genius in the film as I do. Smart money says that Jennifer Lawrence wins for Silver Linings Playbook, so if you're feeling squeamish, go with J-Law instead of Riva. But I think the Academy is feeling a little more octogenarian these days...)

Best Adapted Screenplay
I predict to win: Chris Terrio for Argo
I'm rooting for: Tony Kushner for Lincoln
(I originally predicted Kushner because by all rights he really ought to win this award. But Argo has the wind at its back at the moment, and it's looking like Terrio walks home with the Oscar.)

Best Original Screenplay
I predict to win: Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty
I'm rooting for: Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola for Moonrise Kingdom
(I originally predicted Boal for this award, with the other possibilities being Michael Haneke for Amour and Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained. The question is: has the Academy buried its grudge against Mark Boal's amazing screenplay.)

Best Supporting Actor
I predict to win: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
I'm rooting for: None of these people. They don't need any more Oscars.
(I originally predicted Christoph Waltz but most people are predicting either Jones or Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook. Waltz, to my mind, is the only one who really needs this Oscar, but I am so checked out of this category I can't really give it any more time. This is the only category that makes me actually angry.)

Best Supporting Actress
I predict to win: Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables
I'm rooting for: Sally Field for Lincoln
(I originally predicted Hathaway. And she appears to be the juggernaut of the 2013 awards season, so you can bank on her.)

Best Film Editing
I predict to win: William Goldenberg for Argo
I'm rooting for: Dylan Tichenor & William Goldenberg for Zero Dark Thirty
(I originally predicted ZDT to win this, but Argo is going to bag a whole bunch of Oscars that we didn't think it originally would. Such is the surge for this Best Picture winner. Maybe William Goldenberg will call Dylan Tichenor to the stage or something dramatic.)

Best Cinematography
I predict to win: Claudio Miranda for Life of Pi
I'm rooting for: Roger Deakins for Skyfall
(I originally predicted Life of CGI for this, and I honestly can't imagine anyone else taking it. People are saying that Deakins is surging, that he deserves an Oscar – and he does – but I don't think Academy voters are planning on putting a check mark next to the James Bond movie. Even this one.)

Best Original Score
I predict to win: Mychael Danna for Life of Pi
I'm rooting for: Thomas Newman for Skyfall
(I originally predicted Life of Pi to win here, and I think it's going to clean up in the below-the-line categories.)

Best Costume Design
I predict to win: Jacqueline Durran for Anna Karenina
I'm rooting for: Durran
(I originally predicted Durran for this award, I am delighted that her win is likely, and I'll be happy if she takes it home.)

Best Production Design
I predict to win: Eve Stewart & Anna Lynch-Robinson for Les Misérables
I'm rooting for: Rick Carter & Jim Erickson for Lincoln but really anyone else.
(I originally predicted Anna Karenina for this award with Lincoln as a possible spoiler. But it looks like Les Mis takes this award.)

Best Sound Mixing
I predict to win: Les Misérables
I'm rooting for: Lincoln
(I originally predicted Les Mis here, and I think it still has to win.)

Best Sound Editing
I predict to win: Argo
I'm rooting for: Zero Dark Thirty
(I originally predicted Argo, and people are predicting lots of other movies – Life of Pi most frequently – but I am just imagining Argo will win lots of things.)

Best Animated Feature
I predict to win: Wreck-it Ralph
I'm rooting for: Frankenweenie
(I originally predicted Frankenweenie because it won all the critics awards early on, but as it turns out, the Academy is probably going to go for the much less imaginative and much more ho-hum of the nominees (as usual) and go with Wreck-it Ralph.)

Best Foreign Language Feature
I predict to win: Amour
I'm rooting for: Amour
(I originally predicted Amour to win. It's win is solid.)

Best Documentary Feature
I predict to win: Searching for Sugar Man
I'm rooting for: I didn't actually see any of these. I'm not really into documentaries, truth be told.

Best Visual Effects
I predict to win: Life of Pi
I'm rooting for: Snow White and the Huntsman (!)
(I originally predicted Life of Pi and I see no reason to change now.)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
I predict to win: Les Misérables
I'm rooting for: The Hobbit: an Unexpected Journey
(I originally predicted The Hobbit and even though I don't like either of those movies very much, I would just rather The Hobbit win than The Miserable Ones.)

Best Original Song
I predict to win: Adele Adkins & Paul Epworth for Skyfall
I'm rooting for: Skyfall
(I originally predicted "Skyfall" for this award, and Adele's won every award so far, so it's looking likely. Plus, everyone love's Adele, and, you know, the song is actually good.)

Best Animated Short Film
I predict to win: Paperman
I'm rooting for: Adam and Dog
(I originally predicted Paperman and I'm stickin' to it.)

Best Live-action Short Film
I predict to win: Curfew
I'm rooting for: Death of a Shadow
(I am not into this Curfew movie, but almost everyone I know is charmed by it. So, I guess it'll win.)

Best Documentary Short Film
I predict to win: Open Heart
I'm rooting for: Again, I didn't see these pictures. Docs are not my thing.

Final Count:

Argo: 4

Les Misérables: 4

Life of Pi: 3

Lincoln: 3

Amour: 2

Anna Karenina: 1

Curfew: 1

Open Heart: 1 

Paperman: 1

Searching for Sugar Man: 1

Skyfall: 1

Wreck-it Ralph: 1 

Zero Dark Thirty: 1

Jason and the Argonauts

Argo is really good.

I'm going to assume that you're all planning on seeing this movie anyway, right? I mean, the trailer is excellent, and this is the same guy who directed The Town two years ago. At the very least, Argo delivers on all of the things that you know you are going to get from Affleck: the pacing is absolutely excellent. He knows when to build tension, when to let the audience in on a bit of irony, when to relieve a series of fast-paced sequences with something more contemplative, and he is expert at relieving tension with a good joke. He did this in both of his previous movies, and it works here just as well.

The story is a great one. Utterly preposterous and also based on a true story. The story is, in fact, so good that the film doesn't need to give its audience the usual twists and feints that we are so used to seeing in the movies these days. Instead, Affleck tells it in a straightforward manner, throwing up only a few obstacles at the end, but even these seem less important than the inevitability of the story itself.

For me, though, this film is all about its incredible supporting players. The supporting cast in Argo is just the best. Affleck is wonderful in the central role, a lovely anchor to the film, but what makes this film work from start to finish is the great performances that an entire series of undersung supporting players in Hollywood give in small roles. Clea DuVall, Bryan Cranston, Tate Donovan, Chris Messina, Farshad Farahat, and Željko Ivanek, were my personal favorites, but there is excellent work all around.

John Goodman and Alan Arkin are mostly here for laughs. They get almost all the good lines, and their respective deliveries of these gems are easily worth Argo's price of admission.

I do think that Affleck's sentimental side tends to kick in as he tries to end his films. I felt frustrated with the oh-so-romantic ending to The Town, and I felt just as frustrated with the pat ending of Argo. These kinds of endings feel easy, almost obligatory, as though the brain of everyone working on the film stopped working in the film's last five minutes and everyone turned into Steven Spielberg circa 1982.

One more note about nostalgia. Sometimes I complain when films sentimentalize an earlier period in movie history. Argo does this blatantly. There's this great sequence where people quote Sidney Lumet's Network and then someone onscreen references it explicitly. The entire idea for Argo comes from Don Taylor's Escape from the Planet of the Apes, and Affleck ends the film with a shot of miniature versions of the Star Wars characters. Even more (and I laughed out loud when I saw this), the logo that Affleck uses for the distributor's credit at the very beginning of Argo is Warner Bros' logo from the late 1970s. It's a great in-joke that immediately set the tone for the picture. This Warner Bros image, too, is not a nostalgic one per se. In fact, let me be kind and say that it isn't exactly the best logo Warner has ever had. Affleck isn't romanticizing the 1970s so much as he is revisiting them, warts and all.

I want to say just one more thing, and that is that I am told there is Oscar buzz about Argo, and while I think that is good news for Affleck's career (he deserves it), and good for the movie in general. I really hope that no one starts acting like Argo is the frontrunner for Best Picture. I don't think the movie's got the legs for that. And it doesn't need them. Behaving as though this movie should win Best Picture is asking more than ought to be asked of Argo. It's a very strong tongue-in-cheek spy movie that happens to be a true story.
Let's all just sit back and enjoy it. It's a good movie.

2011's Nominees: Part 6 of 12

BLUE VALENTINE

1 Nomination:

  · Best Actress: Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)

Director: Derek Cianfrance
Cast: Ryan Gosling, Williams, Faith Wladkya, John Doman, Mike Vogel, Carey Westbrook, Ben Shenkman

 
I liked this movie, I think, and both of the girls I saw it with liked it a lot. It is well made and emotionally affecting, sure, but... well. This is what I'll say about it: I wanted to root for their relationship, and because of the Cianfrance's management of time in the film, we all know that their marriage is not working out from the very beginning of the movie. This made it difficult for me to cheer their relationship on. I think this makes sense; I wasn't able to emotionally commit to their relationship because I was already aware that it wasn't going to end like Valentine's Day, and so – I think because of my own self-protective instincts – I didn't. The acting is great all around, and, as I said, the filmmaking is excellent.

Will Win: N/A
Might Win: N/A
My Rating: #27 out of 45

RABBIT HOLE

1 Nomination:

  · Best Actress: Nicole Kidman (Moulin Rouge!, The Hours)

Director: John Cameron Mitchell
Cast: Kidman, Aaron Eckhart, Miles Teller, Dianne Wiest, Sandra Oh, Jon Tenney, Giancarlo Esposito

 
I am a little surprised that Kidman made this cut. I feel like this doesn't usually happen when the actor in question already has an Oscar and the Academy doesn't really like the film. I was not planning on seeing this movie, I have to admit, just because I find the Tony- and Pulitzer-prize- winning play on which it is based a little... well... boring. On the other hand, the film is by John Cameron Mitchell, who has only ever directed excellent films. There are two: Hedwig and the Angry Inch and Shortbus. Both are genius.

Will Win: N/A
Might Win: N/A
My Rating: Not Yet Rated

THE TOWN

1 Nomination:

  · Best Supporting Actor: Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

Director: Ben Affleck
Cast: Affleck, Renner, Rebecca Hall, Jon Hamm, Blake Lively, Slaine, Pete Postlethwaite,Chris Cooper.

 
I really liked this film – I remember being only so-so on Affleck's last film. In this one, the acting is excellent, and the script is rather surprising, but the best thing is the tension in it. There are two very well made car chases (see Salt for how to make a boring one) and three separate heist sequences. If I want anything out of a heist movie it's more heists and more car chases. Bring them on. Also, they wear nun masks to one of the bank robberies. That shit is scary. I highly recommend this; it is one of my favorites for the year.
 
Will Win: N/A
Might Win: N/A
My Rating: #12 out of 45

Casey Affleck Double Feature

Last week Julie and I went to see Andrew Dominik's ostentatiously titled The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. It's a film heavily influenced by Terrence Malick, which means, of course, that I was very fond of it. It's an extremely slow-moving film, and because of this, is able to take every moment and allow tension to build between characters. The suspense that Dominik is able to achieve with the movie is remarkable simply because he's decided not to hurry his way through the plot. So the movie becomes scary, dangerous, taut. It's also incredibly beautiful. The score is sweet and slow, and each shot is gorgeously designed. It's poetic and loving, in a way, and seems exquisitely choreographed. But the truly remarkable thing about James/Ford is the acting. A slow movie like this is obviously a character-driven thing and Dominik has chosen actors who prove fascinating studies. Brad Pitt is scary and unpredictable as Jesse James, and gives an excellent performance, but attention must be paid to Casey Affleck, who gives what is probably going to be my favorite performance by an actor this year. He's nervous and skittish, while maintaining arrogance. He is, obviously, a coward, too, and Affleck isn't afraid of being viewed like this, he lets us see every nervous, disgusting twitch in Robert Ford's eyes. The rest of the cast is fabulous, too. Sam Shepard, Sam Rockwell (!), Paul Schneider, and Garrett Dillahunt are all wonderful. It's great ensemble work, and the way Pitt plays off of them is masterful. Affleck's role is the flashy one—and, as I said, my favorite—but I should make clear that the movie's center is Pitt. He is all-powerful in every scene he inhabits. Pitt makes acting look easy, which is probably why he gets as little notice as he does. I never knew what his next move in James/Ford was going to be, and it is a testament to his work that someone as famous as he is can still constantly surprise.

At a new friend's encouraging I also saw Gone Baby Gone, which stars Casey Affleck, Michelle Monaghan, Ed Harris and Morgan Freeman. The film was directed by Ben Affleck. The direction is smart and Affleck's sense of timing and storytelling are very good. I am excited for his next movie. Gone Baby Gone is a mystery story based on a novel by Dennis Lehane (who penned the less-interesting, much less tightly woven Mystic River). Casey Affleck and Monaghan are private investigators who are asked to look into the disappearance of a little girl. Performances are great all around. It's a genre picture much like Mystic River was, but it is interesting and surprising and maintains engaging throughout. It also turns on a powerful moral question that Casey must answer at the end of the film. This works as a moral conundrum for the audience as well. What is especially fascinating, I think, is the way Ben Affleck handles this turning point. Politically, the film has its heart very much in the right place. It's very intriguing morally. Another point about Affleck's direction that I want to make is that the actors aren't Hollywood-pretty. He's shot the film in the streets of Massachusetts and he's made sure to shoot people who look like real people as extras in his film. To my mind, it's a smart move, and the film seems more honest because of it. A quick shout out about my favorite performance in the film, which is by Amy Madigan, Ed Harris's wife. She has a thankless role that disappears halfway through the film, but her characterization is excellent and she creates the film's most beautiful emotional moments.