Predictions?

Here's how I think the night will go down...

Best Animated Feature: Rango
Best Animated Short Film: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Best Live Action Short Film: The Shore (though my faves are Raju and Tuba Atlantic)
Best Actor in a Lead Role: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Actress in a Lead Role: Viola Davis, The Help
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Art Direction: Dante Ferretti & Francesca Lo Schiavo, Hugo
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life
Best Costume Design: Mark Bridges, The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist
Best Editing: Thelma Schoonmaker, Hugo
Best Achievement in Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Makeup: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (in an upset)
Best Original Score: Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Best Original Song: Bret McKenzie for "Man or Muppet, The Muppets
Best Picture: The Artist
Best Foreign Language Picture: Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
Best Sound Mixing: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (in an upset)
Best Sound Editing: Drive (in an upset)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, and Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay: Asghar Farhadi, A Separation (in an upset)

I haven't seen any of the documentaries (short or long), so I have no predictions to make, but everyone thinks that the winners will be The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom and Undefeated, for what it's worth.

The truth is: I think many of these predictions are wrong. And I completely hope that's true just because I prefer surprises more than I like knowing how it's all going to turn out.

The frontrunner for most of the under-the-line nominations is The Artist, or at least it should be. This means that The Artist should win Costume Design, Art Direction, Editing, and Score.

This is the way it will go: if The Artist does sweep those under-the-line awards, then Hugo picks up in the Sound categories, Visual Effects, etc. If I'm right, though, then it means that the Academy liked Hugo almost as much as they liked The Artist and they split the votes (favoring The Artist but a split nonetheless). My logic here is that they are giving three big ones (Picture, Director, Actor) to The Artist, so they will want to give Hugo other things (Costume, Art Direction, Editing), which means they will feel like they also want to honor other films in the Sound department and for Visual Effects, etc.


I know a lot of people have been complaining this year, but in years when there are a lot of surprises, I am the happiest. I don't worry about the Academy honoring the films I love. They are never going to do that. I just like it when they choose weird things...

Okay, we'll talk again soon.

2012's Nominees: Part 1 of 10

As I do every year in the weeks leading up the Academy Awards ceremony, I will be sharing my thoughts on all of the feature-length fiction films. For me that means 41 films this year (I exempt myself from the documentaries and the shorts). I am generally pleased with these year's nominees, but the truth is, I don't take any of this too personally. My favorite film of the year is The Tree of Life and if it doesn't win Best Picture (and it isn't gonna), I will still love it all the same.

If the nominee has been nominated for Oscars previously, they will be listed next to his/her name in parentheses). This year's nominees:

Hugo

11 Nominations

• Picture
• Director: Martin Scorsese (The Departed, The Aviator, Gangs of New York, GoodFellas, The Last Temptation of Christ, Raging Bull)
• Adapted Screenplay: John Logan (The Aviator, Gladiator)
• Cinematography: Robert Richardson (Inglourious Basterds, The Aviator, Snow Falling on Cedars, JFK, Born on the Fourth of July, Platoon)
• Original Score: Howard Shore (The Lord of the Rings: the Return of the King, The Lord of the Rings: the Fellowship of the Ring)
• Costume Design: Sandy Powell (The Tempest, The Young Victoria, Mrs Henderson Presents, The Aviator, Gangs of New York, Shakespeare in Love, Velvet Goldmine, The Wings of the Dove, Orlando)
• Art Direction: Dante Ferretti (Sweeney Todd: the Demon Barber of Fleet Street, The Aviator, Gangs of New York, Kundun, Interview with the Vampire: the Vampire Chronicles, The Age of Innocence, Hamlet, The Adventures of Baron Munchhausen), Francesca Lo Schiavo (Sweeney Todd: the Demon Barber of Fleet Street, The Aviator, Gangs of New York, Kundun, Interview with the Vampire: the Vampire Chronicles, Hamlet, The Adventures of Baron Munchhausen)
• Editing 
• Sound Mixing
• Sound Editing
• Visual Effects

Director: Scorsese

Cast: Asa Butterfield, Chloë Grace Moretz, Ben Kingsley, Sacha Baron Cohen, Helen McCrory, Jude Law.

This picture obviously inspired a lot of love, and I have to concede that, though I did not love this movie, it probably deserves almost all of the nominations up there. This is a movie that clearly loves movies, and it is supposed to be a kind of love-letter to cinema, but for me it totally falls short of being the love letter it wishes to be because it is a truly boring movie. I loved Helen McCrory in it, but the movie cannot keep its tone straight and has trouble building up any tension whatsoever.

Will Win: Art Direction, Costume Design, Editing

Could Win: Director, Screenplay, Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects

My Rating: #36 out of 63

The Artist

10 Nominations

• Picture
• Director: Michel Hazanavicius
• Actor: Jean Dujardin
• Original Screenplay: Michel Hazanavicius
• Supporting Actress: Bérénice Bejo
• Cinematography: Guillaume Schiffman
• Original Score: Ludovic Bource
• Costume Design: Mark Bridges
• Art Direction: Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould (Master and Commander: the Far Side of the World)
• Editing 

Director: Hazanivicius

Cast: Dujardin, Bejo, John Goodman, James Cromwell, Penelope Ann Miller.

I loved this movie, and while I understand that it is derivative in a lot of ways, I also think it is inventive and delightful, reminding us of how great silent movies were to begin with. This film, like Hugo, is a "love letter to the movies" and while I am sort of bored by that idea, Hazanivicius's love letter to the movies creates movie magic. This is the favorite. I expect it to win big on Oscar night. As the night comes closer I may switch to predicting Dujardin for the win, as well. And one more thing: looking up at my stats for Hugo, you will notice that the art directors, the composer, the costume designer, the cinematographer, the director, and even the screenwriter all have previous nominations, some of them quite a few. The Artist's artists are newcomers and, for me, are the underdog here, even if their movie is the favorite.

Will Win: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Score

Could Win: Actor, Cinematography, Art Direction, Editing

My Rating: #6 out of 63

Moneyball

6 Nominations

• Picture
• Actor: Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Twelve Monkeys)
• Adapted Screenplay: Steven Zaillian (Gangs of New York, Schindler's List, Awakenings)
• Supporting Actor: Jonah Hill
• Editing 
• Sound Mixing

Director: Bennett Miller

Cast: Pitt, Hill, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Chris Pratt, Robin Wright, Stephen Bishop, Nick Porrazzo.

I loved this movie, too, and I was happy that it stayed near the top of everyone's lists for so long. I think the script is stellar, the performances are excellent - even the supporting players'. I also think that this film is superbly directed. How a movie can spend its entire length telling me not to romanticize it and then still trick me into romanticizing it is absolutely beyond me. I also really want Brad Pitt to win Best Actor, and I am sure that is clouding my judgment here, but I am predicting him for the win. His performance is so great, so spot on, it seems to me, that his big emotive moment, when he is alone on the field weeping, is left off camera. Miller doesn't need to show us how deeply this man is affected by the decision he has to make, because we already know. And we know because Brad Pitt told us in every nuance of his performance. I think it is the best work of his career, and he has given some incredible performances, so that is saying a great deal.

Will Win: Actor

Could Win: Screenplay

My Rating: #5 out of 63

War Horse

6 Nominations

• Picture
• Cinematography: Janusz Kaminski (Le Scaphandre et le Papillon, Saving Private Ryan, Amistad, Schindler's List)
• Original Score: John Williams (The Adventures of Tintin, Munich, Memoirs of a Geisha, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Catch Me If You Can, Artificial Intelligence: A.I., Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, The Patriot, Angela's Ashes, Saving Private Ryan, Amistad, Sleepers, Nixon, Sabrina, Schindler's List, JFK, Home Alone, Born on the Fourth of July, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, The Accidental Tourist, Empire of the Sun, The Witches of Eastwick, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, The River, Return of the Jedi, E.T.: the Extra-Terrestrial, Raiders of the Lost Ark, The Empire Strikes Back, Superman, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Jaws, The Towering Inferno, Tom Sawyer, Cinderella Liberty, Images, The Poseidon Adventure, Fiddler on the Roof, The Reivers, Goodbye, Mr. Chips, Valley of the Dolls)
• Art Direction: Rick Carter (Avatar, Forrest Gump), Lee Sandales
• Sound Mixing
• Sound Editing

Director: Steven Spielberg

Cast: Jeremy Irvine, Emily Watson, Tom Hiddleston, Benedict Cumberbatch, Niels Arestrup, David Kross,  Peter Mullan, David Thewlis, Toby Kebbell, Matt Milne, Eddie Marsan, Robert Emms.

Heartwarming. I've complained about this at length here, so I will be quiet, except to say that I fail to understand why this received nominations for cinematography or art direction. Neither of the two is consistent throughout the film. Each of the film's numerous locations looks like as if it were both designed and photographed by different people. And yes John Williams does have that many nominations for scoring. His War Horse score strikes me as unremarkable, but I am unsurprised that he was nominated again.

Will Win: N/A

Could Win: Sound Mixing, Sound Editing

My Rating: #43 out of 63

Silence and the Artist

The Artist is a gimmick. And I think it's going to win Best Picture, or rather, I should say that I hope it wins Best Picture, because if it is a gimmick (and it is) it is the most clever gimmick I've seen in years.

See, The Artist is a silent film. It's made in black and white and also in the old 1:37 aspect ratio. There is a gorgeous Old Hollywood score undergirding the whole thing (just like silent pictures of old) but we don't actually get to hear the actors (Jean Dujardin, Bérénice Bejo, John Goodman, James Cromwell) actually speak.

And it works. It works like gangbusters. Of course, silent movies worked too, and many of them still work, a fact to which anyone who has seen Sunrise or 7th Heaven or The Gold Rush can attest. The Artist is delightful: movie magic from start to finish, drawing particular attention to an aspect of the cinema that is not given a lot of attention on its own (think of how very much we always comment on camerawork, or editing, or acting, and how little on the audio in a movie!).

Ludovic Bource, who scored the film, has, as far as I can tell, never scored anything this enormous, but his music is great: instantly hummable, was nominated for a Golden Globe, and seems destined to be nominated for Best Original Score come January.

The acting in this movie is also wonderful. It is impossible not to fall in love with Dujardin and Bejo. They're simply the most lovable pair I can think of. Dujardin in particular has such a charismatic way about him that it is hard for me to imagine anyone else achieving anything anywhere near what he does in this role. I was in love with him within the film's first ten minutes. He's simply astounding.

The film is indebted, of course, to Singin' in the Rain – any film about the transition from silents to talkies is bound to be – and the plot is heavily dependent on the iconic plot of A Star Is Born, but none of that matters in The Artist. If it's derivative, it puts such an original twist on its source material that I didn't mind one bit. Instead, I went along for the ride, mesmerized by the audacious filmmaking, the sheer cleverness, and the sheer magic up on that screen.

(Just as a sidenote, I can't help but think of last year's silent film, The Illusionist, and how much I absolutely loved it. And, as you can probably tell, The Artist is also (as people are so fond of saying) a love letter to the movies, but Michel Hazanavicius's love letter is so much more interesting than Scorsese's. (I know, I know. I should leave Marty alone. I'll stop now.))