Oscar Predictions

The Oscar Nominations, probably my favorite day of my whole year as an addict, are on Tuesday, January 31st at 5:30a. I like the nominations better because I feel like there are more surprises when the nominations come out than there are at the awards show itself. I almost always predict the awards pretty well, but the nominations are a whole other story. I actually am not sure I even like trying to predict the nominations, but my roommate is using the TV, so I can't watch my DVD of The Chumscrubber and I just don't feel like reading. So here are my predictions for Tuesday morning...

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Walk the Line
(Everyone is saying that Munich could show up here too but I just don't think anyone likes it. I think the other spoilers could be The Constant Gardener and King Kong. Cinderella Man is supposedly a dark horse, too. Whatever.)

BEST ACTOR
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
(Note the similarity to Best Picture, here. As for alternates, I really think the Howard and Strathairn slots are both really vulnerable and could go to... who? Most frequently mentioned are Russell Crowe for Cinderella Man and Jeff Daniels for The Squid and the Whale, but I can't really see any lineup other than the one I'm predicting.)

BEST ACTRESS
Zhang Ziyi, Memoirs of a Geisha
Judi Dench, Mrs Henderson Presents
Charlize Theron, North Country
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica (Too bad, too. This film sucks.)
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
(I should be honest and say that I wish three of these performances weren't on this list. But then it seems no one is happy with this category this year. Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger) deserves to be on here like nobody's business. Maybe the Academy hasn't forgotten her and I will be happy on Tuesday morning. Maybe Q'orianka Kilcher (The New World) will show up too. Yeah. Right. Oh yeah, and the other spoiler is supposedly Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice). What?!?!)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Matt Dillon, Crash (This is so irritating.)
Bob Hoskins, Mrs Henderson Presents
George Clooney, Syriana
(I really wish William Hurt would show up here for A History of Violence, but I doubt it will happen. This is a pretty wide open category, I'm told. But as I see it, the same names get mentioned again and again and these are the ones. You might also see Don Cheadle for Crash here.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Catherine Keener, Capote
Amy Adams, Junebug
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
(OK, at the last minute I changed my mind here and added Adams. I hope hope hope she's nominated, but her slot will probably go to Scarlett Johanssen (Match Point) instead. This is a really hard category to call, but I thiink these are the favorites.)

BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller, Capote
Paul Haggis, Crash
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Steven Spielberg, Munich
(This category is historically unpredictable. We might see someone as out there as David Cronenberg (A History of Violence) or Michael Haneke (Caché) here. No one really knows what the directing branch will do. Terrence Malick (The New World) could show too, as well as James Mangold (Walk the Line) or even Woody Allen (Match Point). Don't hold out for King Kong's director though. That's sooo 2003. We're all over it.)

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Chicken Little
Corpse Bride
Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Caché
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A History of Violence
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Munich
The Constant Gardener

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Memoirs of a Geisha
The Constant Gardener
The New World (It's a shame no one liked Jarhead. It deserves a nomination.)

BEST ART DIRECTION
Cinderella Man
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride & Prejudice
The White Countess

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Casanova
Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride & Prejudice
The New World
The White Countess

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (I.E. THE AWARD FOR WHICH JOHN WILLIAMS IS NOMINATED EVERY SINGLE YEAR
Brokeback Mountain
Cinderella Man
Memoirs of a Geisha
The Chronicles of Narnia: the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
The New World

I have no ideas about Best Song or any of the visual effects stuff. Expect Batman Begins to do well in all of those categories. War of the Worlds should make a showing here at least once as well and if I don't see The New World up for Best Makeup, there is something wrong with the world. I can't wait until Tuesday!!!