Oscar Predictions

BEST PICTURE:
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
I think everyone's pretty sure this is how it's looking. This is the DGA and PGA lineup.
Best film not on this list: Children of Men

BEST DIRECTOR:
Cuarón, Children of Men
Del Toro, Pan's Labyrinth
Frears, The Queen
Gonzalez Iñárritu, Babel
Scorsese, The Departed
I'm predicting a snub for Dreamgirls' Bill Condon. I think the film has already peaked.
Best director who won't be nominated: Paul Greengrass, United 93

BEST ACTOR:
DiCaprio, The Departed
Gosling, Half Nelson
O'Toole, Venus
Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
You won't see Sacha Baron Cohen here on Tuesday morning, I'm sorry to say, though I'd trade him for Will Smith any day.

BEST ACTRESS:
Cruz, Volver
Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Mirren, The Queen
Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Winslet, Little Children
There are no spoilers for this list.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Haley, Little Children
Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Murphy, Dreamgirls
Nicholson, The Departed
Wahlberg, The Departed
This is the craziest category this year. Expect surprises. Michael Sheen, Brad Pitt, Ben Affleck, Alan Arkin, Alec Baldwin and even James McAvoy could all potentially take one of these slots. Murphy is the only sure thing.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Barraza, Babel
Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Hudson, Dreamgirls
Kikuchi, Babel
This is the list everyone's predicting and I sort of hate it. I don't think anyone else can place, though.

I'm going to just relax on the other categories and let them happen on Tuesday without thinking about them too much. I feel far away from all of the buzz down here in Tally and I don't have a very clear picture of how Los Angeles is thinking.