Oscar Noms 2017: Predictions

My predictions for this year. I don't feel super-confident about all of these, but here they are. The ones I feel shady about, I'll explain below.

Tearjerker alert!

Best Documentary Short Subject: Joe's Violin. I'm going with the one that is vaguely about The White Helmets and Watani: My Homeland, will split the votes there.
Holocaust. Smart money says that films about the Shoah generally do best in this category. There are three documentaries about the Syrian crisis in this category, and it seems like it makes sense that, especially

Best Documentary Feature: O.J.: Made in America. I didn't watch any of the documentaries, but everyone says this is gonna win.

Best Animated Short Film: Piper. I was not into this, but it is going to win. See my discussion on this category here.

Best Live-action Short Film: La Femme et le TGV. I am feeling less confident about this than I was. It is possible that maybe Sing can win this. Still, I'm going with this one.

Are you shining just for me? (Best part of this movie.)

Best Animated Feature: Zootopia

Best Original Song: "City of Stars" from La La Land

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Harlow & Alonzo, Star Trek Beyond. It has to be them, right? It just can't be the guys who did Suicide Squad. It just can't.

Best Sound Editing: Mackenzie & Wright, Hacksaw Ridge. I am going to do a last-minute switcheroo and say that Hacksaw is gonna take this one. I feel like La La Land winning everything, especially an award like this, just seems unlikely. There has to be a little backlash. And Hacksaw, with its amazing editing, really deserves this one.

Give these explosions an Oscar, please.

Best Sound Mixing: Nelson, Lee & Morrow, La La Land

Best Visual Effects: Corbould, Hickel, Knoll & Lee, Rogue One. Apparently most people think this is going to go to The Jungle Book. Eh. Perhaps I think it just makes sense to give it to the movie that made the most money. The Jungle Book was fine and all, but, like, Rogue One was really good, and shouldn't we all be grateful to have an actual good Star Wars movie?

Best Foreign Language Film: Toni Erdmann. Yet another one where I am going to vote against conventional wisdom. I hear folks saying that Iran will win this award. Asghar Farhadi's film The Salesman is very good, but Toni Erdmann is an absolute delight from start to finish, and I think it makes more sense for voters to choose this one. Plus, it is going to be remade quite soon by a Hollywood studio and will star Jack Nicholson and Kristen Wiig. The Farhadi push does make sense. He is in the news a lot right now because he and his cast will not be attending the Oscars due to the Trump administration's attempted travel ban on visa-holders from Iran. I know it sounds crazy, but I still think it will go to Toni Erdmann. Just know, that this is not conventional wisdom when you fill out

While we're here, I just want everyone to know
how cute I think Justin Hurwitz is.

Best Original Score: Hurwitz, La La Land

Best Film Editing: Cross, La La Land

Best Production Design: Vermette & Hotte, Arrival. If you want to win your office poll, you should probably choose La La Land here, but I just can't bear to keep writing La La Land. 

Best Costume Design: Zophres, La La Land. If someone else can win, I think that person is Madeline Fontaine for Jackie.

Best Cinematography: Sandgren, La La Land

Best Supporting Actress: Davis, Fences. Category fraud or no, Viola is getting this Oscar.

This man deserves an Oscar.
Don't fuck it up, Academy!

Best Supporting Actor: Ali, Moonlight

Best Original Screenplay: Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Best Adapted Screenplay: Jenkins & McCraney, Moonlight

Best Actor: Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Best Actress: Stone, La La Land

Best Director: Chazelle, La La Land

Best Picture: La La Land