An Oscar Nomination Preview

Oscar nominations arrive bright and early this Tuesday morning. It's probably my favorite day of the year—like my own Christmas morning. And I don't usually like to make too many predictions about the nominations because, actually, the thing that I love the most about Oscar nomination morning is the surprises. Often on the day of the actual Oscars awards ceremony, there aren't too many surprises, but on the morning of the nominations? Surprises galore! Witness last year the surprise nomination for the very deserving Paul Mescal in Aftersun and the totally out of left field surprise nomination for the brilliant Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie.

Hi, Paul

Anyhow, I thought it might be fun to rundown what I think I know about who is going to be nominated. As far as I can tell, things are very confused at the moment, and since the Screen Actors Guild nominees don't match up very well with earlier critics' prizes and the nominees for the Golden Globes, we might be in for some serious surprises come Tuesday morning.

Best Actor

The SAG nominees are:

• Bradley Cooper, Maestro
• Colman Domingo, Rustin
• Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
• Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
• Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

This is a pretty good list. The Golden Globes had all of these gentlemen on their list of twelve (!), some of those have a very low chance of being nominated, like, say, Matt Damon in Air or Joaquin Phoenix in Beau Is Afraid but from their list you could add these two actual possibilities:

• Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

I think Murphy, Cooper, Giamatti, and Wright are locks right now. I also think it's a little crazy that Colman Domingo keeps making these lists; Rustin is a legitimately terrible movie. I tend to think Andrew Scott will get in over Colman Domingo, but who knows. Maybe it's just because I like his movie so much better.

Best Actress

If you think I'm too boring to be nominated, think again

The SAG nominees are:

• Annette Bening, Nyad
• Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Carey Mulligan, Maestro
• Margot Robbie, Barbie
• Emma Stone, Poor Things

From the Golden Globes, add to this list:

• Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
• Greta Lee, Past Lives
• Natalie Portman, May December

Here's where things get confusing. I think Gladstone, Stone, and Mulligan are the locks here. Poor Things is actually on the rise. I also tend to think that Robbie will get in; she's been nominated twice before, including a supporting nomination for Bombshell (does anyone even remember that movie?). SAG did not like May December, but will the Academy feel the same way? I think Greta Lee is probably out of the running here. But I actually feel like Annette Bening is not going to make the final list. Diana Nyad is a difficult character who is hard to like, and I feel like Jodie Foster steals the show from her. Here's what I predict: the Academy members are all watching The Zone of Interest right now, and they're loving it, and so they're remembering how good Sandra Hüller is in Anatomy of a Fall while they're looking for ways to also honor The Zone of Interest. Hüller squeezes in as a nominee.

Best Supporting Actor

The Screen Actors Guild gave us an unhinged list of nominees that left out the two critical favorites:

• Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
• Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
• Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
• Ryan Gosling, Barbie

The Golden Globe list subbed out Brown and added in the two favorites:

• Charles Melton, May December
• Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things 

Sorry, Charlie

It seems that the Screen Actors Guild simply did not care for May December, which I guess makes sense. They don't seem to get its camp or its melodramatic critique, and indeed, much of that critique is leveled at actors and their own self-importance, so perhaps SAG's dislike of the film is to be expected. Anyway, I think that means Melton will not be making a showing here. As for Ruffalo, here's a bit of trivia for you: in five of the last six years, two actors from the same film have been nominated for Best Supporting Actor. Last year it was The Banshees of Inisherin, the year before it was The Power of the Dog, before that it was Judas and the Black Messiah, The Irishman, and Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri. This means, it seems to me, that both Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe are in. Downey and Gosling are also in. And, I really, really hate to say it, but I also think DeNiro is in. Gross. Brown and Melton are both much better than DeNiro, and their films are also much better than Killers of the Flower Moon.

Best Supporting Actress

The Golden Globe list was:

• Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer [LOCK]
• Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
• Jodie Foster, Nyad [LOCK]
• Julianne Moore, May December
• Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
• Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers [LOCK]

Don't worry, darling, I don't need a nomination. I'm rich.

The Screen Actors Guild disliked May December, so they left off Julianne Moore and also left off the very deserving Rosamund Pike, substituting instead Penélope Cruz, who gives a totally unhinged performance in Ferrari that I rather enjoyed. Will Danielle Brooks make it in? I don't think she's locked—the movie is terrible—but she's a bright spot in that film, so perhaps she will get nominated. As for the fifth slot... I think this is a complete wild card, and I wouldn't be surprised if it went to someone completely out of left field like, say, Sandra Hüller for The Zone of Interest or América Ferrera for Barbie.

Not giving Rosamund Pike a nomination would really be a crime. But I expect the Academy to fuck that up.

Best Director

Watch: this'll do well on Tuesday, too.

You have probably noticed that I think The Zone of Interest is going to do very well on Tuesday morning. I actually think Jonathan Glazer is going to get nominated for Best Director for this movie. There's precedent for this if you look at the last few years. Last year, amid the usual suspects for Best Director appeared Ruben Östlund and Triangle of Sadness, a movie which only got three nominations overall (a low count) but wound up with nominations for Best Director and Best Picture The year before that the same thing happened with Hamaguchi Ryūsuke's Drive My Car, and the year before that it was Thomas Vinterberg's Another Round, skip a year and you'll find Paweł Pawlikowski for Cold War in that slot. All of this is to say, there is a voting bloc that chooses a very well respected film director who isn't based in the U.S. and gives him (it's always him) a nomination. This year, I think we're looking at Glazer.

For Tuesday morning, of the films that are in the conversation (unlike, say, Of an Age or Afire or Alcarràs), I'll be rooting for my favorites of the year, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Anatomy of a Fall, American Fiction, All of Us Strangers, and The Boy and the Heron (will Joe Hisaishi finally get an original score nomination???). I'm also gonna be rooting for May December, just out of spite, because it's very, very good, and I wish more people appreciated its strange melodramatic vibe.